The tariffs won’t be effective on jan 20th. Certainly there will be specific ultimatums made to both countries, and it is irresponsible to set a tariff date, and then later “negotiate the specific threats/ultimatums” to reverse the tariffs. There are government agencies that need to prepare for policy.

Specific to Canada, there is a long history of free trade with comparable wages in auto sector, such that even some parts are shipped across the border for processing and shipped back. A conflict of interest with Musk, is that he doesn’t mind destroying North American Auto sector, or big 3 anyway.

What brings warm winters to Europe is a warm northern Atlantic, and Mediterranean. This can still happen with a slower AMOC, and in fact is at record warmth these past 2 years, and a warm winter for Europe should be expected.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=sstanom&ortho=1&wt=1

That AMOC may be slower is not stopping significant heat where the gulf stream flows. CO2 is making norther part of oceans hot without the gulf stream being fast, but hotter tropical water moving more slowly can still make for comparable heat dumped north.

The other major change happening last 2 years is that Arctic ocean freezing is thinner than previously. While Arctic ice volume set a major record low this past summer, the volume of meltwater flowing south was pretty steady with recent years, because the winter peak ice volume was also a record low. That winter ice volume is low primarily from ocean heat finding its way up to the Arctic in summer, and less due to extreme summer warm air temperatures.

The actual danger from slow AMOC, that is manifesting these last 2 years, is an extremely hot tropical Atlantic. Heat not moving away as fast as it is generated.

Terrible framing of global warming, for which victory or defeat is a matter for humanity. Needing your home country to dominate clean energy is not helpful. It is also economically destructive in the case of solar, as 90% of a solar development project costs is other components than solar modules. US policies, whether democrat or republican, will always favour oil dominance, as oil is key to war, and having something to fight over.

China is winning the energy race. Its solar silicon industry annual capacity is 5x the energy of global oil reserves. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/solar-powers-giants-are-providing-more-energy-than-big-oil/articleshow/110988156.cms?from=mdr

Complaints about China solving humanity’s sustainable energy needs with abundance, by claiming to want to add to global capacity with poorly competing home alternatives is necessarily dishonest protection of home oil dominance, and prioritizing destroying humanity for its oil profit maximization, rather than human sustainability.

The EU is implementing a system known as a carbon border adjustment mechanism, which would tax imported raw materials made through dirty processes — and supporters of the concept hope Trump might pursue a similar approach.

A carbon tax, applied to consumption origin in international trade, is indeed the only worthwhile policy. This can only help China, as anyone, including China, wanting to avoid taxes at home or on exports should install Chinese solar and other clean energy. Much of China’s polysilicon processing is already 100% solar self powered.

The peace proposal is for largely Russian speaking/ethnic regions of former Ukraine to stay Russian after their recent liberation.